Will Bitcoin Price Crash on July 4th & Upcoming Predictions
The overall Bitcoin market sentiment seems to be gearing up for a big rally. However, could we possibly see a flash crash on July 4th before this rally begins? I’ve analyzed the current conditions to give you some insight on possible upcoming price action so you can plan your trades accordingly.
I think BTC cryptocurrency is primed to start making some moves. The market bottom looks extremely close to being in, so hodlers are starting to get excited in anticipation of a rally. My personal take on the situation is that this rally is likely to occur, but there could potentially be one last dose of pain for bulls before that happens.
Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index
First let’s take a look at the overall market sentiment. The Fear and Greed index for Bitcoin is currently at an 11, so there is an extreme amount of fear right now. This is mostly expected right now with the overall macro environment, new recession and high inflation.
At some point, this is going to quickly flip positive. However, this could happen in a day or in six months. I personally believe we’re going to experience at least one more round of brief pain in the market before sentiment begins to shift.
Long-Term Market Cycles
888Velvet posted a chart of Bitcoin market cycles on Twitter that I find interesting. It appears to show that a strong bull rally is upcoming. However, if you really look closely at this chart, even it indicates that there is a likely chance that the prices will drop more before this rally begins.
We’ve already seen a recent low around $17,500. I think we could hit this low again and possibly even dip a bit below it before the trend reverses to the upside.
July 4th Bitcoin Crash?
Take a look at one more chart for Bitcoin. This is a volume chart for the past couple of years. The blue bars at the bottom of the graph tell you the trading volumes. Look at July for the past two years. What do you see? The biggest thing that stands out to me is a low trading volume. I think this could potentially be a setup for a price drop tomorrow, July 4th. It’s a crappy way to celebrate Independence Day here in the USA, but I’m quite frankly looking forward to this potential dip for two reasons.
First, if this dip does occur tomorrow, I think it may possibly be the final price drop we see before the rally begins. If this is true, that would make it a perfect and final opportunity to stack some sats for cheap before it’s too late. I’m also anxious for this final capitulation event to occur because it seems necessary to launch us forward into the next bull rally. I say bring it on so we can get this over with and move on to better things. On top of that, I might as well place a few trades and make a profit while I wait.
BTC Price Predictions
In the short-term, I think it’s possible to see a dip down to the $15,000 – $18,000 range. It seems feasible that this could occur tomorrow, July 4, 2022, but I definitely can’t guarantee it will happen or the timing. It seems likely with the current market setup though.
Overall, it seems more likely that the price action would end up somewhere in the middle of the range above. $16,000 – $17,000 is my best guess. For anyone that has been accumulating BTC recently, this could be a great way to DCA down a bit more.
This predictions will probably change over time, but here is what I’m currently envisioning for the future price action of Bitcoin. If we can mark a bottom and start a rally, I think short-term prices could rebound to $25,000 – $28,000. This could potentially occur before the end of July. If this rally can continue, we could potentially see $40,000 by Halloween. However, I think a couple of dips will occur between now and then, and there is also a strong possibility that we’ll get stuck in another sideways market for a few months after a brief rally.
Trader Recommendations
My recommendations here should not be viewed as investment advice. I’m just one trader and analyzer sharing his personal opinions about what I estimate the future price action will see based on information currently available to me. This info can change at any time though, and chart analysis isn’t a guaranteed predictor for the future.
With that said, here is what I’m planning on doing today and tomorrow with these current market conditions. You may choose to do the same or something completely different based on your own knowledge. Today, I’m going to sit on the sidelines and wait. I already hold BTC, so I’m not in any danger of missing a market rally if one does occur without a dip.
If there is a mini-crash tomorrow, I plan to buy more BTC. I’ll start buying around $17k and DCA the price action if it continues to decrease from there. If this dip happens, I think it could be my final chance to stack a few more sats before I sit back and wait for the rally.